Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12da…5bbd crypto 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-9%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%86W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$62
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 50% -12.4%
≤30d 174 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 47% -14.0%
≤90d 195 -17.3% -25.2% 44% 43% -19.9%
all 195 -17.3% -25.2% 44% 43% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 43% -19.9%
10% -32.3% 43% -27.5%
15% -38.9% 42% -34.5%
20% -44.9% 42% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses86 / 109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage36d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 34¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $1.82 (match) · 379 history records