Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x12d9…01bb sports 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49,491 (-18%) realized −$48,026 · open −$1,465
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%109W / 338L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$597per market
Trades / day72.5pace
Fees−$3,901est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,306
7 days+$4,642
14 days−$1,981
30 days−$9,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$9,312
other 26% −$28,644
world 0% +$588
crypto 0% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +23.6% +11.9% 40% 40% +13.3%
≤30d 254 -15.1% -23.2% 27% 27% -15.8%
≤90d 447 -14.2% -22.4% 24% 24% -21.8%
all 447 -14.2% -22.4% 24% 24% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 24% -21.8%
10% -29.8% 24% -29.3%
15% ← realistic here -36.6% 24% -36.1%
20% -42.8% 23% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$762) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,379 vs −$551 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,408
Realized−$48,026
Unrealized−$1,465
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses109 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$3,901
Open positions3
Markets (closed)447 / 450
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$597
Trades / day72.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 34¢ $1,025 $838 −$188 (-18%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 16¢ $1,148 $360 −$788 (-69%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ 12¢ $700 $210 −$490 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $690 −$690 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $995 +$1,005 +101%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,544 +$810 +52%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,609 +$1,441 +90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,119 −$1,119 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $715 −$715 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $410 +$1,590 +388%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $993 +$1,507 +152%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $312 +$1,938 +620%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $580 −$580 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $463 −$463 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $949 −$949 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $572 +$1,428 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $740 +$1,758 +238%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $489 −$489 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,238 +$1,129 +91%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $772 −$772 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $961 +$1,050 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $984 −$984 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,159 −$1,159 -100%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $132 −$132 -100%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $507 −$507 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 10 $491 −$491 -100%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 10 $552 −$552 -100%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $619 −$619 -100%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 10 $664 −$664 -100%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 10 $538 −$538 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $649 −$649 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $371 −$371 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $563 −$563 -100%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 10 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 10 $574 −$574 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $283 −$283 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $388 −$388 -100%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $437 −$437 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $518 −$518 -100%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $215 +$276 +129%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $323 +$1,927 +596%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $605 −$605 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $353 +$646 +183%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $121 −$121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $713 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1,164 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,043 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $246 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $690 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $995 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $1,478 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $4 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $62 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $274 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1,609 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $410 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $993 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,119 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $715 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $64 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $142 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $195 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $112 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $156 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $147 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $200 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $41 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $11 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $372 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $164 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,407.50 · official $1,477.50 · 3500 history records