Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12d7…aad9 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-21%) realized −$43 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$44
sports 23% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -41.7% -47.3% 9% 9% -39.2%
≤90d 11 -41.7% -47.3% 9% 9% -39.2%
all 11 -41.7% -47.3% 9% 9% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.3% 9% -39.2%
10% -52.3% 9% -45.0%
15% -56.9% 9% -50.3%
20% -61.1% 9% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage10d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -56%
France leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$6 -57%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $26 −$20 -77%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$15 +60%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $5 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $41 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 9d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 9d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 58¢ $15 9d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $15 9d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 57¢ $14 9d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $15 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $5 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.86 · official $46.86 (match) · 32 history records