Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12d6…f2a8
world · 49 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$272,381 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$238,540 · open +$2,685
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$124,092
Realized−$238,540
Unrealized+$2,685
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions49
Markets (closed)39 / 49
History coverage13d
Avg bet$24,704
Trades / day265.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 49 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81,386
7 days−$75,859
14 days−$238,540
30 days−$238,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 55¢ 75¢ $44,090 $59,712 +$15,622 (+35%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 41¢ 23¢ $28,845 $16,170 −$12,675 (-44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $9,106 $9,243 +$137 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $7,526 $9,171 +$1,645 (+22%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $5,135 $6,910 +$1,775 (+35%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $2,980 $5,204 +$2,224 (+75%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 46¢ 96¢ $1,933 $4,010 +$2,077 (+107%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 68¢ $1,877 $2,312 +$435 (+23%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $1,680 $1,750 +$70 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,571 $1,588 +$17 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $1,792 $1,355 −$437 (-24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1,189 $1,187 −$2 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 41¢ 35¢ $869 $741 −$127 (-15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 87¢ 81¢ $744 $694 −$51 (-7%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 41¢ 12¢ $2,489 $691 −$1,798 (-72%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $624 $661 +$37 (+6%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 68¢ 97¢ $321 $457 +$137 (+43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $514 $455 −$59 (-11%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 76¢ 94¢ $365 $454 +$89 (+24%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $293 $269 −$24 (-8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $224 $235 +$10 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $156 $197 +$42 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 24¢ 26¢ $172 $183 +$11 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 17¢ 23¢ $129 $175 +$46 (+35%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 81¢ 99¢ $62 $76 +$14 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $132 −$250 -189%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 12 $32,520 −$49,216 -151%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 12 $8,420 −$13,175 -156%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 12 $132 −$71 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Jun 12 $617 −$744 -120%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Jun 12 $64 +$6,889 +10843%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 12 $207 −$320 -154%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $361 −$26,695 -7402%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Jun 12 $101 −$39 -38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? Jun 12 $207 +$755 +365%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Jun 12 $314 −$183 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $41,760 +$1,328 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $6,948 +$372 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $26,782 +$1,511 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $530,771 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $5,393 +$793 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $1,480 +$1,566 +106%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $466 +$326 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $2,979 +$367 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $6,134 −$335 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7,535 −$6,877 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $16,060 +$217 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $28,643 −$238 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $5,054 +$3,151 +62%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $3,422 +$3,719 +109%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $167 +$14 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $8,349 +$1,277 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 06 $1,214 +$565 +47%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 06 $1,187 +$304 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $9,928 +$157 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $1,346 −$991 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,340 +$396 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,995 +$1,005 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $44 +$2,045 +4607%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $74,440 −$55,155 -74%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $517 +$55,038 +10645%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $77,677 −$166,011 -214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 45% −$335
world 42% +$14,767
other 13% −$222,783
finance 1% +$543
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$55,038
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $13 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $336 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $617 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $44 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $101 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $101 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $586 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $3,385 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $195 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $1,491 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $315 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $156 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $79 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $478 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1,199 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $53 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+149.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +90.9% +72.7% 52% 36% -13.6%
≤30d 39 +175.8% +149.5% 54% 41% -25.5%
≤90d 39 +175.8% +149.5% 54% 41% -25.5%
all 39 +175.8% +149.5% 54% 41% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover265.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +149.5% 41% -25.5%
10% +125.6% 38% -32.6%
15% ← realistic here +103.8% 26% -39.1%
20% +83.9% 23% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124,091.58 · official $124,090.95 (match) · 3500 history records