Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12d5…f0eb
other · 47 markets active 2d ago
2.0score
+$22,209 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24,028 · open −$1,819
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Net worth$4,815
Realized+$24,028
Unrealized−$1,819
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses32 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage163d
Avg bet$3,888
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 3 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,854
14 days+$1,969
30 days+$13,521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $4,114 $2,698 −$1,416 (-34%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,904 $1,975 +$71 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ $615 $142 −$473 (-77%)
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? Yes 22¢ $397 $0 −$397 (-100%)
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ $4,413 $0 −$4,413 (-100%)
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ $5,200 $0 −$5,200 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? No 10¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? No $737 $0 −$737 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Yes 60¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3,900 +$1,431 +37%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $5,692 +$182 +3%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $4,746 +$109 +2%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5,461 +$131 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16,585 +$115 +1%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $493 +$483 +98%
Major US official out by May 31? May 22 $31 +$174 +567%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 19 $1,394 +$90 +6%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $3,058 +$181 +6%
Ebola emergency by June 30? May 17 $92 +$108 +116%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $737 −$737 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3,969 +$11,223 +283%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 15 $2,041 +$151 +7%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? May 07 $412 −$397 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 02 $10,869 +$4,440 +41%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? May 02 $3,408 +$569 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 11, 2026? Apr 24 $2,698 +$278 +10%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $4,413 −$4,413 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Apr 08 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 07 $144 +$53 +37%
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? Apr 06 $1,620 +$5 +0%
BitBoy convicted? Apr 06 $4,887 +$470 +10%
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear Apr 06 $995 +$363 +36%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 01 $617 −$615 -100%
AWS service disrupted by March 31? Mar 30 $7,627 +$912 +12%
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m? Mar 30 $588 −$588 -100%
Will Trump say "Nancy" or "Pelosi" this week? (March 22) Mar 30 $393 −$393 -100%
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m? Mar 30 $673 −$673 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? Mar 30 $1,428 +$74 +5%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Mar 30 $9,592 +$2,633 +27%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? Mar 30 $11,040 +$1,701 +15%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 18 $4,258 +$1,186 +28%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 18 $7,968 +$32 +0%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 14 $12,566 +$5,701 +45%
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württember Mar 14 $909 +$1,943 +214%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Mar 14 $225 −$225 -100%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31? Mar 14 $4,432 +$181 +4%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 04 $11,954 +$96 +1%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $11,988 +$12 +0%
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? Jan 14 $3,807 +$1,325 +35%
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Jan Jan 14 $111 −$28 -26%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17? Jan 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? Jan 14 $2,815 +$1,195 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% +$1,723
world 23% +$9,241
politics 11% +$3,136
crypto 9% +$115
tech 8% +$83
sports 3% +$182
finance 3% −$1,890
economics 2% +$10,826
culture 1% −$1,207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,067 39h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $412 40h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $431 40h
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3d
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $194 4d
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $36 4d
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,516 4d
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $1,333 4d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $398 4d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $497 4d
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $13 4d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $32 4d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $516 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.2% +0.6% 100% 25% -1.1%
≤30d 14 +208.7% +179.3% 86% 43% +16.6%
≤90d 34 +72.4% +56.0% 74% 41% +1.0%
all 44 +58.6% +43.5% 73% 41% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.5% 41% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here +29.7% 34% -6.6%
15% +17.2% 27% -15.6%
20% +5.7% 14% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,814.77 · official $4,814.54 (match) · 439 history records