Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
12 0x12d4…453b other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,767 (+24%) realized +$5,017 · open +$1,750
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$511per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$13,932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$440
14 days+$23
30 days+$3,832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$3,375
sports 17% +$3,873
crypto 2% −$26
world 0% −$100
politics 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +43.3% +29.7% 67% 58% +10.6%
≤30d 26 +15.1% +4.1% 58% 50% +28.7%
≤90d 31 +16.3% +5.2% 58% 52% +26.8%
all 34 +32.9% +20.2% 59% 53% +25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.2% 53% +25.2%
10% +8.7% 44% +13.2%
15% -1.8% 41% +2.3%
20% -11.4% 26% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$329 vs −$83 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.67 per $1 lost it wins $5.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$13,932
Realized+$5,017
Unrealized+$1,750
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions18
Markets (closed)34 / 55
History coverage605d
Avg bet$511
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $2,204 $3,400 +$1,196 (+54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $2,900 $3,345 +$445 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2,500 $2,490 −$9 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $1,100 $1,603 +$503 (+46%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $500 $757 +$257 (+51%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $800 $747 −$53 (-7%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 84¢ $200 $275 +$75 (+37%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 21¢ 7¢ $662 $226 −$435 (-66%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $316 $188 −$128 (-41%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $200 $169 −$31 (-16%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 66¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 59¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $102 +$182 +178%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $304 +$3 +1%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 −$20 -20%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $554 −$24 -4%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $307 −$29 -10%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND England vs. Croatia: Draw at half Jun 18 $51 +$102 +201%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,538 −$229 -15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $102 +$21 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $237 −$34 -14%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $103 +$3 +2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,411 +$2,849 +202%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,950 +$1,091 +37%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $309 −$26 -8%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 08 $170 +$60 +35%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 08 $4,100 +$1,647 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $100 +$146 +146%
Will PSG beat Chelsea? Jul 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? Oct 29 $2 +$13 +658%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 52m
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 12¢ $205 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY 8¢ $164 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $102 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 25¢ $307 6d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $307 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 6d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $81 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 12¢ $530 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 6d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $278 6d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 6d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $130 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND England vs. Croatia: Draw at half BUY 33¢ $51 7d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 56¢ $101 7d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,931.57 · official $14,283.89 · 346 history records