Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12d4…aee3
crypto · 72 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$147 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$137 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$111
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)63 / 72
Avg bet$11
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 9 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$137
14 days−$137
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 66¢ 82¢ $53 $67 +$14 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Seoul have between 120-130mm of precipitation in June? Yes 61¢ 36¢ $8 $5 −$4 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 37¢ 18¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-53%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 22¢ 19¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Noah Kahan have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crusaders win? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -21%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $213 −$27 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +96%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $19 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% −$136
other 9% −$5
sports 3% −$3
tech 2% −$2
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -28.4% -35.2% 30% 25% -28.7%
≤30d 63 -28.4% -35.2% 30% 25% -28.7%
≤90d 63 -28.4% -35.2% 30% 25% -28.7%
all 63 -28.4% -35.2% 30% 25% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 25% -28.7%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 19% -35.6%
15% -47.1% 16% -41.8%
20% -52.3% 14% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.96 · official $110.96 (match) · 230 history records