Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12d4…bc50 politics 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,669 (-1%) realized −$1,669 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,069per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$94
other 32% −$305
sports 13% −$1,120
culture 4% −$6
tech 3% −$5
world 3% −$4
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% −$11
finance 0% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 -2.2% -11.5% 6% 0% -10.8%
all 131 -3.9% -13.1% 22% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 8% -10.6%
10% -21.4% 8% -19.2%
15% -29.0% 5% -27.0%
20% -36.0% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,575) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,069
Realized−$1,669
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,069
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $863 $863 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $205 $205 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $330 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $306 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,723 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,473 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,569 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,702 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,714 −$3 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $677 +$1 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $2,099 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,498 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 20 $639 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,598 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $2,813 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $3,065 −$4 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $3,310 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $553 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $2,269 −$2 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 21 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $2,957 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,629 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $2,428 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,323 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,545 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $302 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $326 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $327 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $213 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $329 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $330 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $306 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $306 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $863 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,372 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,374 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,305 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,307 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,409 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,410 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,511 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,514 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,671 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,674 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,485 19d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,487 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,416 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,418 20d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,585 23d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,587 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,572 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,575 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,068.70 · official $1,068.70 (match) · 411 history records