Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12c9…70fc other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$2
other 33% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 3% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.9% -11.2% 33% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 13 -3.7% -12.8% 38% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -3.7% -12.8% 38% 8% -9.2%
all 28 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage465d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $22 −$2 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $102 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $30 +$3 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $70 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $34 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $33 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 27 $11 −$1 -9%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 27 $11 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $20 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $0 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $22 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 38h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $33 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $4 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $36 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $26 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $34 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $8 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $8 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records