Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12c4…ff8c sports 1089 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,429 (+5%) realized +$1,392 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%422W / 663L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$321
7 days−$16
14 days−$210
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,553
other 14% +$153
crypto 0% −$30
economics 0% −$36
culture 0% +$15
politics 0% −$14
world 0% −$19
weather 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -75.1% -77.5% 11% 11% -10.4%
≤30d 163 -32.1% -38.6% 25% 25% -10.4%
≤90d 579 -11.9% -20.3% 35% 34% -1.0%
all 1085 -9.4% -18.0% 39% 38% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 38% -4.7%
10% -25.9% 37% -13.8%
15% -33.0% 36% -22.1%
20% -39.6% 33% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$20 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$1,392
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses422 / 663
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1085 / 1089
History coverage242d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1085 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Under 49¢ 56¢ $302 $342 +$40 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-32%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 −$15 -49%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $473 +$434 +92%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $97 −$97 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $39 +$90 +232%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 +$63 +101%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $230 −$49 -21%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $13 −$12 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$28 +127%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $16 +$7 +41%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$37 +127%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $134 +$116 +86%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$17 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $87 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $87 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $91 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $13 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 30¢ $8 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 31¢ $5 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 34¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $102 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $102 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $26 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $203 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 50¢ $11 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $49 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $47 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 20h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 49¢ $62 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.91 · official $347.91 (match) · 2955 history records