Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x12c3…a470 crypto 730 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 178d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,161 (-14%) realized −$22,152 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%184W / 536L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$786now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$564
7 days−$1,771
14 days−$1,954
30 days−$3,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$22,417
sports 9% −$1,641
other 2% −$1,080
world 1% −$1,165
economics 0% −$307
tech 0% −$285
politics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -40.7% -46.3% 23% 23% -38.0%
≤30d 63 -32.6% -39.0% 24% 24% -42.0%
≤90d 87 -36.0% -42.1% 25% 25% -41.1%
all 720 -21.5% -29.0% 26% 25% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 25% -27.9%
10% -35.8% 25% -34.8%
15% -42.0% 25% -41.1%
20% -47.7% 24% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$447 vs −$204 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$786
Realized−$22,152
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses184 / 536
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions6
Markets (closed)720 / 730
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$214
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 720 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $205 $255 +$50 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $220 $230 +$10 (+5%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $150 $169 +$19 (+12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $100 $29 −$71 (-71%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$115 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$68 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $286 −$258 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $266 −$250 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $237 +$799 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $308 −$57 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$102 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $97 −$92 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $241 −$231 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $338 +$449 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$18 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $182 −$174 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $220 −$220 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $235 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $219 +$337 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $318 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $215 +$467 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$33 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $236 −$225 -95%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $190 +$117 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $63 −$60 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $138 −$132 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $120 −$114 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 30 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 30 $77 +$111 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 30 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 30 $29 +$113 +397%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 30 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Pana BUY 6¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $154 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $88 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $786.42 · official $961.42 · 3474 history records