Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

12 0x12c1…a2ca world 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$101per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+0.2%	-9.4%	50%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	2	+0.2%	-9.4%	50%	0%	-9.4%
all	2	+0.2%	-9.4%	50%	0%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.4%	0%	-9.4%
10%	-18.0%	0%	-18.1%
15%	-26.0%	0%	-26.0%
20%	-33.2%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.05 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$103

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage34d

Avg bet$101

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	95¢	96¢	$103	$103	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Jun 02	$99	+$4	+4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	May 29	$102	−$4	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY No	95¢	$103	1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	BUY No	96¢	$99	26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL No	86¢	$98	29d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	89¢	$102	33d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.30 · official $103.25 (match) · 5 history records