Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12c1…ddd6 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+22%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$5
sports 23% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -33.3% -39.6% 38% 38% +15.4%
≤30d 8 -33.3% -39.6% 38% 38% +15.4%
≤90d 8 -33.3% -39.6% 38% 38% +15.4%
all 8 -33.3% -39.6% 38% 38% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 38% +15.4%
10% -45.4% 38% +4.4%
15% -50.7% 25% -5.7%
20% -55.5% 12% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 22¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 +$12 +165%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $7 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.57 · official $26.57 (match) · 18 history records