Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12c0…4975 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$12
other 7% −$1
finance 2% −$1
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 43% 14% -8.2%
≤30d 26 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 12% -9.0%
≤90d 35 +4.8% -5.1% 46% 20% -8.6%
all 43 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 16% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 16% -9.1%
10% -18.7% 7% -17.8%
15% -26.5% 7% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage533d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $63 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $49 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $101 −$3 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +50%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $65 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $127 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $62 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $61 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $42 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $114 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $97 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $47 +$7 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $54 +$3 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $29 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $62 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $12 +$8 +65%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $2 $0 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $29 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $44 +$3 +6%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $18 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $1 $0 +1%
San Diego vs. Pepperdine Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 22 $2 $0 +0%
RASMR vs. Threadguy Jan 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? Jan 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $61 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $63 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $46 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $49 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $23 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $28 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $21 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $30 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $47 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $4 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $34 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $31 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $56 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $61 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.86 · official $1.00 (match) · 191 history records