Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12bc…bf2f sports 520 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (159 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,199 (-13%) realized −$4,193 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate69%390W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day159.5pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$495
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (159 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -20.8% -28.3% 57% 32% -18.0%
≤30d 562 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 47% -12.3%
≤90d 562 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 47% -12.3%
all 562 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 47% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover159.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 47% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 28% -20.7%
15% -25.4% 16% -28.3%
20% -32.7% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$38 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$4,193
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses390 / 172
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions1
Markets (closed)562 / 520
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day159.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 64¢ 100¢ $91 $142 +$51 (+56%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Clair Obscur (BO3) - CCT Europe Cl Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 15 $83 −$70 -84%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs ex-KRÜ Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs Maryville University - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs Guara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Q Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO5) - Prime League 1st Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Julie&cie - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $229 +$35 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 +$3 +6%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $83 +$31 +38%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $73 +$8 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$5 -14%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $183 +$28 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 85¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 86¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 86¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 76¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 76¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 53¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 56¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 55¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 55¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 55¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 67¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 51¢ $4 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $104 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 94¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 96¢ $20 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 100¢ $5 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $19 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 95¢ $7 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 90¢ $35 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.93 · official $142.36 (match) · 3500 history records