Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x12bb…f88a politics 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,175 (-8%) realized −$1,027 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days−$72
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$603
other 41% −$573
tech 5% −$48
world 1% +$28
economics 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +30.8% +18.3% 100% 100% +18.3%
≤30d 22 +17.1% +5.9% 59% 41% -14.9%
≤90d 49 +23.0% +11.2% 51% 39% -18.6%
all 51 +21.9% +10.3% 51% 37% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 37% -18.2%
10% -0.2% 29% -26.0%
15% -9.9% 20% -33.2%
20% -18.7% 10% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +26% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$85 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$1,511
Realized−$1,027
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)51 / 64
History coverage105d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027? No 69¢ 80¢ $319 $370 +$51 (+16%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 64¢ 50¢ $440 $344 −$96 (-22%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $334 $286 −$48 (-14%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 88¢ 87¢ $288 $284 −$5 (-2%)
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $70 $84 +$14 (+20%)
Will Linda McMahon be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No 79¢ 83¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump announce Andrew Puzder as the next United States Labor Secretary No 80¢ 75¢ $43 $40 −$3 (-7%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 9¢ $59 $29 −$30 (-51%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 5¢ 4¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-49%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $28 $3 −$25 (-90%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes 8¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+449%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by Dec Jun 16 $70 +$21 +31%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $565 −$309 -55%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $10 +$29 +280%
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $31 +$13 +41%
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $758 +$113 +15%
Will Trump announce Michael Ellis as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $74 +$20 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Jun 11 $190 −$1 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 08 $10 −$3 -25%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 06 $158 +$44 +28%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? Jun 03 $35 −$17 -48%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 02 $827 +$48 +6%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 02 $4 +$8 +211%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 02 $27 −$15 -55%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? May 29 $522 −$157 -30%
Will Ken Martin cease to be DNC Chair by July 31, 2026? May 29 $41 +$14 +35%
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? May 28 $58 +$4 +6%
Will Ken Martin cease to be DNC Chair by December 31, 2026? May 27 $4 +$1 +40%
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary May 24 $15 −$4 -28%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? May 23 $83 −$56 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto May 23 $133 +$9 +7%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 22 $320 +$16 +5%
Will Simone Lupinacci as Izuku Midoriya (My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON May 20 $2 $0 -2%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 19 $314 −$212 -68%
Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN? May 15 $45 −$30 -66%
Will Drake feature Morgan Wallen on ICEMAN? May 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Drake feature Yeat on ICEMAN? May 15 $88 +$277 +316%
Will Drake feature Young Thug on ICEMAN? May 15 $4 +$31 +857%
Will Drake feature Central Cee on ICEMAN? May 15 $51 +$123 +240%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 15 $1,129 −$241 -21%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 07 $775 −$30 -4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 02 $71 +$8 +12%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $157 −$157 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Chris Wright be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn Apr 20 $969 +$23 +2%
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Apr 19 $125 −$5 -4%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $126 +$13 +10%
Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before Apr 08 $141 +$55 +39%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 07 $76 +$25 +33%
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 07 $96 −$19 -20%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 04 $1,051 −$99 -9%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 04 $36 +$16 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Apr 04 $74 +$34 +46%
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 04 $741 +$79 +11%
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before Apr 04 $986 −$687 -70%
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 04 $61 −$11 -18%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 31 $55 +$4 +8%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 21 $400 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $84 6m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $104 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $102 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $2 6h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 6h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $21 21h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 24h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $26 25h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $54 25h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 25h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $13 32h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 32h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $308 32h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $2 32h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $10 32h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $115 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $300 2d
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by Dec SELL No 68¢ $33 2d
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by Dec SELL No 68¢ $58 2d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet befo BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3d
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce Andrew Puzder as the next United States Lab BUY No 81¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce Andrew Puzder as the next United States Lab BUY No 84¢ $6 6d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 6d
Will Donald Trump announce Andrew Puzder as the next United States Lab BUY No 80¢ $4 7d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 7d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $39 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,511.22 · official $1,526.70 · 326 history records