Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12bb…cee9
sports · 827 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$615 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$583 · open −$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$583
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses344 / 463
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions20
Markets (closed)807 / 827
History coverage941d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 20 History 807 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$19
14 days−$2,714
30 days−$2,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 67¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 7¢ 35¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+427%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 60¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 57¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Yes 46¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 19¢ 1¢ $14 $1 −$14 (-94%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? No 61¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu Murphy Cassone 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? No 11¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026? No 26¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$7 -52%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +29%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $215 in June? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $14 −$3 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $15 −$5 -34%
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -13%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$1 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -5%
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 12 $13 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -4%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Jun 12 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -2%
Trump on $250 bill this year? Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -2%
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $14 $0 -2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 29% −$76
other 25% −$229
politics 24% −$137
economics 16% −$16
crypto 3% −$71
world 1% +$4
tech 1% −$75
culture 0% −$4
finance 0% +$11
weather 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $1 5m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $1 15m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 14¢ $1 26m
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 35¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $3 2h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 30h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $5 30h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 30h
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 202 SELL No 99¢ $5 30h
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $7 30h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $9 30h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +3.5% -6.4% 51% 16% -8.0%
≤30d 422 -61.2% -64.9% 20% 8% -58.0%
≤90d 482 -38.6% -44.5% 30% 19% -42.9%
all 807 -8.3% -17.1% 43% 32% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 32% -10.5%
10% -25.0% 27% -19.1%
15% -32.3% 21% -26.9%
20% -38.9% 17% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.36 · official $37.36 (match) · 2358 history records