Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12b9…3ec2 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$158,869 (+48%) realized +$158,869 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%112W / 246L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,350per market
Trades / day71.7pace
Fees−$707est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$34,966
sports 13% −$5,104
world 2% −$1,095
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -43.0% -48.4% 10% 6% -52.0%
≤30d 160 -3.6% -12.8% 16% 12% -37.0%
≤90d 358 +16.7% +5.6% 31% 24% -7.5%
all 358 +16.7% +5.6% 31% 24% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.6% 24% -7.5%
10% -4.5% 20% -16.3%
15% ← realistic here -13.7% 17% -24.4%
20% -22.2% 14% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$586) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +42% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$720 vs −$357 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$158,869
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses112 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$707
Open positions0
Markets (closed)358 / 245
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$1,350
Trades / day71.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 358 Trades
no open positions (192 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $537 −$577 -108%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $380 −$380 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $215 −$223 -103%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-05? Jun 17 $1,093 −$1,093 -100%
Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $716 −$816 -114%
Clube do Remo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $265 −$265 -100%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $310 −$310 -100%
CF América vs. Atlas FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 −$136 -90822%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $502 −$697 -139%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $0 −$4,779 -6158526%
Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Viborg FF win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $509 −$472 -93%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-25? Jun 17 $420 −$420 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will FC København win on 2026-04-27? Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-27? Jun 17 $0 +$321 +242563%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-08? Jun 17 $13 +$217 +1676%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-25? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $11 +$205 +1910%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-03-06? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-04-08? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-04-14? Jun 17 $108 −$589 -543%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-23? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $922 −$922 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $390 −$390 -100%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 1¢ $1 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 1¢ $1 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 1¢ $1 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $35 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $965 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $109 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $24 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $106 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $8 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $40 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $98 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $183 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $8 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $50 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $22 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $214 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $20 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $85 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $176 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $200 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $5 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $103 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $50 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $200 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $5 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $50 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.33 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records