Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

12 0x12b7…cfb3 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$10 (+48%) realized +$12 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown64%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-6.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+3.2%	-6.6%	25%	25%	+20.2%
≤30d	4	+3.2%	-6.6%	25%	25%	+20.2%
≤90d	4	+3.2%	-6.6%	25%	25%	+20.2%
all	4	+3.2%	-6.6%	25%	25%	+20.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.6%	25%	+20.2%
10%	-15.6%	25%	+8.7%
15%	-23.7%	25%	-1.8%
20%	-31.2%	25%	-11.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.45 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.48 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$12

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown64%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-98%
Egypt to win the second half?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Egypt leading at halftime?	Jun 15	$4	+$13	+313%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	15¢	$3	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	1h
Egypt to win the second half?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	8¢	$5	2h
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	60¢	$18	2h
Egypt leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	14¢	$4	4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 7 history records