Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:29:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12b6…b4a9 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-4%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.3% -20.7% 61% 22% -14.6%
≤30d 23 -12.3% -20.7% 61% 22% -14.6%
≤90d 23 -12.3% -20.7% 61% 22% -14.6%
all 23 -12.3% -20.7% 61% 22% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 22% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 22% -22.8%
15% -35.2% 17% -30.2%
20% -41.5% 13% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 95¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$7 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$9 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $8 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.51 · official $19.68 (match) · 46 history records