Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x12b5…f3cb crypto 292 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$176 (+3%) realized +$184 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%121W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$387
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$555
sports 24% +$354
other 6% +$197
tech 0% −$6
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -22.0% -29.4% 30% 29% -23.2%
≤30d 288 -1.1% -10.5% 42% 42% -9.7%
≤90d 288 -1.1% -10.5% 42% 42% -9.7%
all 288 -1.1% -10.5% 42% 42% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 42% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 41% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 41% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 40% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$184
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses121 / 167
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)288 / 292
History coverage12d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $24 +$5 (+29%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ 38¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 20¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -78%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +166%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$5 -33%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $3 +$4 +134%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 +$5 +158%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $5 −$3 -66%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $19 +$18 +96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -47%
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 Jun 14 $31 −$7 -22%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $10 +$14 +138%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $29 +$32 +109%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $42 +$40 +96%
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 +$38 +134%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $34 −$7 -21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $23 −$16 -67%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $23 −$10 -44%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $12 +$11 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 −$3 -64%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $15 +$17 +112%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $27 −$26 -95%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $25 −$21 -85%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $1 1m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $14 1m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 25m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 34m
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 49¢ $5 38m
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 48¢ $5 47m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $6 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal SELL Petr Brunclik 100¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Elise Mertens 100¢ $13 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $5 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $5 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 37¢ $5 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 42¢ $3 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.66 · official $42.66 (match) · 769 history records