Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12b5…25f8 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$2
other 19% −$16
politics 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 3% +$6
sports 3% +$7
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 44 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 7% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage489d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $47 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $54 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $83 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or below on May May 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $1 +$1 +45%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 06 $2 $0 +7%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $1 $0 -29%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? Apr 29 $17 $0 +0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 28 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on March 31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 27? Mar 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump say 'unemployment' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $13 +$6 +49%
NFT Kid vs. White Boy Summer Mar 04 $6 +$6 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $41 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $40 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $40 31h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $7 31h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $32 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $22 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $28 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $12 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records