Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

12 0x12b4…564f other 9 markets active 24h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$76 (-9%) realized −$2 · open −$74

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$92per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$699now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-19.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-10.4%	-19.0%	0%	0%	-19.0%
≤30d	1	-10.4%	-19.0%	0%	0%	-19.0%
≤90d	1	-10.4%	-19.0%	0%	0%	-19.0%
all	1	-10.4%	-19.0%	0%	0%	-19.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.0%	0%	-19.0%
10%	-26.7%	0%	-26.7%
15%	-33.8%	0%	-33.8%
20%	-40.3%	0%	-40.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$3 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$699

Realized−$2

Unrealized−$74

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)1 / 9

History coverage14d

Avg bet$92

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$283	$230	−$52 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$107	$130	+$23 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$120	$120	+$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$60	$53	−$7 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$43	$23	−$21 (-48%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$40	$22	−$18 (-46%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$21	$22	+$1 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$31	−$3	-10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$28	23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$28	23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$61	41h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	BUY Yes	2¢	$62	3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$98	4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$123	4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$45	13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$7	13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$41	14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$31	14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$103	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.41 · official $699.41 (match) · 29 history records