Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12b4…a662 sports 743 markets active 6d ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (531 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,233 (+37%) realized +$12,233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%405W / 337L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day531.4pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,285
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (531 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 42% -45.7%
≤30d 742 +6.2% -3.9% 55% 47% -24.1%
≤90d 742 +6.2% -3.9% 55% 47% -24.1%
all 742 +6.2% -3.9% 55% 47% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover531.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 47% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 38% -31.3%
15% -21.5% 30% -38.0%
20% -29.2% 21% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$38 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses405 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions1
Markets (closed)742 / 743
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day531.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 742 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 27¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+102%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $205 −$205 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $98 −$6 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $256 −$8 -3%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $244 −$236 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $312 −$279 -89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,013 −$2,013 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $10 +$2 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $29 +$14 +50%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $79 −$20 -25%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $31 −$17 -54%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $122 −$43 -35%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $86 +$46 +53%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $124 +$97 +78%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $6 +$4 +57%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $16 −$3 -21%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 11 $13 −$4 -33%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $18 +$7 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $28 +$5 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $28 +$18 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $25 −$19 -76%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $75 −$7 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $43 +$37 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $58 −$46 -79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $82 −$42 -51%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $338 +$15 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $297 −$293 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $59 +$33 +56%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $34 +$67 +197%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 85¢ $3 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 6d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Athletics 99¢ $1 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 17¢ $1 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 6d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 77¢ $1 6d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 89¢ $4 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 71¢ $9 6d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $6 6d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 64¢ $21 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 6d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 64¢ $1 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 51¢ $6 6d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 84¢ $70 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 6d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Knicks 83¢ $8 6d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 72¢ $17 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 25¢ $12 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 13¢ $7 6d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 60¢ $27 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 6d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 25¢ $7 6d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 46¢ $13 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 57¢ $27 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 37¢ $17 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 47¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records