Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12b3…1302 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%28W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$55
crypto 27% +$4
other 14% −$119
tech 12% +$7
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 -11.0% -19.5% 89% 0% -10.4%
all 32 -9.7% -18.3% 88% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 6% -9.9%
10% -26.1% 3% -18.6%
15% -33.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -39.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$68 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses28 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage193d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $226 $226 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $224 in May? Jun 01 $226 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $226 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 07 $226 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $225 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 18 $225 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Bulls Apr 12 $224 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Apr 08 $224 $0 +0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 31 $224 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $224 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 12 $919 +$3 +0%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 09 $917 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $917 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 4? Mar 05 $915 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $906 +$9 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $2.50? Feb 21 $385 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $7.50? Feb 21 $474 $0 +0%
Pacers vs. Knicks Feb 11 $824 +$81 +10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $163 +$5 +3%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 01 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jan 22 $61 −$55 -90%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jan 22 $40 +$2 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 22 $334 +$31 +9%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 22 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc Jan 22 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 22 $226 +$77 +34%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 12 above $165? Jan 17 $980 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $48 $0 +0%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $48 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $465 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $324 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $325 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $226 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $224 in May? BUY No 100¢ $226 31d
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $226 45d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 100¢ $226 57d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $225 65d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $225 73d
Magic vs. Bulls BUY Magic 100¢ $224 75d
Timberwolves vs. Pacers BUY Timberwolves 100¢ $224 78d
Clippers vs. Bucks BUY Clippers 100¢ $224 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $224 94d
Rockets vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $919 105d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Celtics 100¢ $917 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $917 112d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $915 115d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 99¢ $906 117d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $385 126d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $7.50? BUY No 100¢ $474 126d
Pacers vs. Knicks BUY Pacers 91¢ $824 134d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 19¢ $160 153d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 98¢ $294 153d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Team WE 37¢ $20 153d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 31¢ $20 153d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 23¢ $20 154d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 48¢ $20 154d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 36¢ $20 154d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 17¢ $1 154d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 41¢ $20 154d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 42¢ $20 154d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 28¢ $20 154d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc SELL ThunderTalk Gaming $11 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.87 · official $225.87 (match) · 72 history records