Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x12b0…a1d8 weather 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%108W / 4L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$15
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 57 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 100 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 112 -0.1% -9.6% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×24.11 per $1 lost it wins $24.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses108 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage121d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $232 $232 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 25 $328 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $326 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $211 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $321 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $339 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 12 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $335 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? Jun 09 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 6? Jun 07 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 06 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $154 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $292 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1? Jun 02 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $277 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $232 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $92 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $22 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $328 27h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $326 36h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $15 36h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $211 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $336 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $321 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $340 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $166 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $339 10d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $338 11d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $337 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $340 12d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 100¢ $124 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $68 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $58 14d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $219 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $60 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $63 15d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $127 15d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $211 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $338 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $335 16d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $333 17d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.09 · official $346.09 (match) · 236 history records