Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12ac…cae8
crypto · 1331 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$402 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$883 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$883
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses599 / 713
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1312 / 1331
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day414.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 1312 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$894
7 days−$856
14 days−$883
30 days−$883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 48¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+107%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$32
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1234 -17.6% -25.5% 45% 38% -40.4%
≤30d 1312 -15.7% -23.8% 46% 38% -37.3%
≤90d 1312 -15.7% -23.8% 46% 38% -37.3%
all 1312 -15.7% -23.8% 46% 38% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover414.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 38% -37.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 30% -43.3%
15% -37.7% 21% -48.8%
20% -43.8% 17% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.54 · official $4.52 (match) · 3500 history records