Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12a8…7286 crypto 413 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-4%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%199W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$18
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -3.6% -12.8% 59% 34% -9.6%
≤30d 413 -6.9% -15.7% 48% 42% -16.4%
≤90d 413 -6.9% -15.7% 48% 42% -16.4%
all 413 -6.9% -15.7% 48% 42% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 42% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 35% -24.4%
15% -31.2% 31% -31.7%
20% -37.9% 25% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses199 / 214
Open positions0
Markets (closed)413 / 413
History coverage30d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 413 Trades
no open positions (128 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 901 history records