Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12a3…8eea world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$4
finance 6% $0
sports 5% $0
other 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 8% -10.1%
≤90d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 12% -9.9%
all 28 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage466d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $93 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $52 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $95 +$16 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $24 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $40 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $57 −$23 -40%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $53 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $51 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $55 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $17 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $1 $0 -9%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $50 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $15 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $2 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $11 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $9 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $37 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $38 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $25 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $24 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $39 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $4 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $12 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $19 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records