Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12a2…0e71 crypto 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,460 (-2%) realized −$7,177 · open +$717
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%160W / 190L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,084per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$1,103est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$4,174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,118
7 days−$12,322
14 days−$8,508
30 days−$3,820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$834
sports 28% −$290
other 20% −$496
crypto 15% −$329
politics 4% −$1,118
economics 2% −$1,405
tech 1% −$553
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -18.7% -26.5% 53% 42% -21.1%
≤30d 179 -15.6% -23.6% 54% 46% -9.9%
≤90d 350 -21.0% -28.5% 46% 40% -9.7%
all 350 -21.0% -28.5% 46% 40% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 40% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 31% -18.3%
15% -41.6% 22% -26.2%
20% -47.3% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$383 vs −$353 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$4,174
Realized−$7,177
Unrealized+$717
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses160 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,103
Open positions4
Markets (closed)350 / 354
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,084
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 56¢ 70¢ $1,807 $2,248 +$441 (+24%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 76¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,243 +$243 (+24%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 61¢ 72¢ $350 $410 +$60 (+17%)
Will England win? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $300 $272 −$28 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 +$179 +35%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $305 +$313 +103%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,509 +$215 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,011 +$255 +25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $80 +$68 +85%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $254 −$152 -60%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4,547 +$1,709 +38%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $64 +$12 +18%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $505 +$13 +3%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $900 −$896 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$75 +36%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $2,015 −$29 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 +$191 +63%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,004 +$144 +14%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $307 −$262 -86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5,618 +$667 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$670 -66%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -4%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,008 −$349 -17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,012 +$9 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,006 +$214 +11%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $506 −$405 -80%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,006 −$555 -55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,000 −$884 -88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,017 +$23 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $10,200 −$5,048 -50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,512 +$513 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,016 +$571 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $5,030 +$584 +12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,531 +$1,503 +43%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $1,095 −$1,085 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,024 +$1,064 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$431 -42%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $1,212 −$1,200 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,011 +$190 +19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,004 +$87 +9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $2,014 −$2,000 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8,000 −$2,645 -33%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1,256 +$211 +17%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $255 −$247 -97%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $2,026 −$264 -13%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $1,012 −$161 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $1,012 44m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 72¢ $686 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1,007 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $507 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $354 2h
Will England win? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 49¢ $305 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 96¢ $2,724 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,265 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $507 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $2,509 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 82¢ $147 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $80 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $29 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 19¢ $72 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $254 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6,256 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4,547 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 84¢ $64 21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 69¢ $518 21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 85¢ $900 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $279 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 22h
Senegal to score first vs. France? SELL No 75¢ $1,986 22h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY No 75¢ $2,015 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $495 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,148 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,174.02 · official $4,174.02 (match) · 1257 history records