Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x129f…ec8a
other · 61 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$25 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage628d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 1 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $94 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$10 +129%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $78 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $80 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$8 +165%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $11 +$6 +52%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $7 +$6 +75%
Wild vs. Lightning Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Predators vs. Lightning Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $10 +$6 +57%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 01 $28 +$11 +40%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 30 $21 +$24 +113%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 27 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-24.5) Mar 23 $22 +$21 +95%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February? Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 31 $13,537 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$13
politics 15% −$9
other 7% +$22
sports 2% −$26
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 5h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 9h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 23h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 27h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 35h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 9d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $6 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 25d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 26d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $84 26d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $84 26d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $85 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 7% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 47 +0.4% -9.2% 26% 19% -9.6%
all 60 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 15% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 15% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 15% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.81 · official $49.81 (match) · 320 history records