Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
12 0x129b…24c4 other 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 761d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$15,958 (+10%) realized +$15,945 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%124W / 56L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$842per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$1,965now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$15,464
crypto 29% +$546
sports 0% −$17
politics 0% −$59
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +21.9% +10.3% 62% 62% +32.8%
≤30d 25 +20.9% +9.4% 60% 60% +8.8%
≤90d 51 +22.4% +10.7% 59% 41% -18.0%
all 180 +28.8% +16.5% 69% 38% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 38% -0.2%
10% +5.4% 29% -9.7%
15% -4.8% 26% -18.5%
20% -14.1% 21% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$762) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$91 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.17 per $1 lost it wins $4.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

761d coverage
Net worth$1,965
Realized+$15,945
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses124 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)180 / 185
History coverage761d
Avg bet$842
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 55¢ 50¢ $1,100 $1,010 −$90 (-8%)
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 58¢ 72¢ $272 $337 +$66 (+24%)
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch No 28¢ 37¢ $223 $290 +$67 (+30%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 30¢ 26¢ $270 $229 −$40 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $88 $99 +$11 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$5 +37%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22 Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $26 +$19 +73%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 23 $6 +$13 +203%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $26 +$28 +109%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $7 −$2 -30%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $6 −$3 -54%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $17 −$6 -36%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $11 +$4 +37%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $6 +$1 +21%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $13 +$3 +23%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $18 −$1 -4%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$5 +54%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $9 +$11 +131%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +71%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 +$24 +196%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 +$55 +71%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$7 +37%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? May 31 $406 −$10 -3%
Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? May 15 $88 −$11 -13%
Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses? May 01 $1,350 +$114 +8%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $56 +$193 +345%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $26 +$126 +485%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $215 +$230 +107%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $25 +$41 +167%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $990 −$29 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 28 $998 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 28 $998 +$1 +0%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $620 +$10 +2%
Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 24 $112 −$74 -66%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 24 $685 +$14 +2%
Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 24 $1,009 +$135 +13%
Fluent FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 24 $949 +$41 +4%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 22 $845 −$55 -6%
Over $4M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 14 $357 −$294 -82%
Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 14 $776 +$21 +3%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 14 $4,256 −$2,007 -47%
Over $10M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 13 $34 −$32 -95%
Over $8M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 13 $29 −$27 -94%
Over $6M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 10 $351 −$34 -10%
Over $1M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 09 $419 +$81 +19%
Over $500k committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 09 $212 +$17 +8%
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? Apr 08 $463 −$131 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22 SELL 91¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 31¢ $46 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists SELL Yes 97¢ $19 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $5 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $3 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $11 3h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 79¢ $8 3h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $16 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 86¢ $17 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $9 4h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 32¢ $6 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $6 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $17 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $2 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $10 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $8 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 6h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $13 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,965.18 · official $1,965.18 (match) · 2696 history records