Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

12 0x1298…e850 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$2 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day33.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-19.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-11.3%	-19.8%	57%	57%	-23.3%
≤30d	21	-11.3%	-19.8%	57%	57%	-23.3%
≤90d	21	-11.3%	-19.8%	57%	57%	-23.3%
all	21	-11.3%	-19.8%	57%	57%	-23.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-19.8%	57%	-23.3%
10% ← realistic here	-27.4%	38%	-30.6%
15%	-34.5%	29%	-37.3%
20%	-40.9%	29%	-43.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -27% → late +3% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.63 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$170

Realized+$2

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Open positions3

Markets (closed)21 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day33.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23?	Yes	59¢	57¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23?	Yes	17¢	17¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$5	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$9	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$25	+96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 22	$25	+$3	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$8	+156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$6	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$5	+89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$9	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$3	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$1	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$3	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 22	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$3	+56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23?	BUY Yes	17¢	$26	1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$51	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Down	90¢	$29	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$13	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Up	88¢	$31	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	SELL Down	63¢	$10	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$34	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$27	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$5	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$5	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$8	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$5	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.26 · official $170.49 (match) · 38 history records