Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1297…30fc
world · 52 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$74 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$77 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$103
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage235d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 2 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 65¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 70¢ 72¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$12 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $61 −$39 -64%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $125 +$34 +27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 24 $63 −$46 -73%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $45 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 22 $17 −$11 -61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $146 −$25 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $32 −$10 -30%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $10 −$1 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $29 −$2 -8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 17 $16 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $500 +$2 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $15 +$16 +106%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $18 −$9 -49%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $30 −$26 -88%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 14 $35 −$10 -30%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $20 −$3 -15%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 13 $14 −$8 -55%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $29 +$11 +38%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 12 $500 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $300 +$1 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $500 +$1 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $506 +$23 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 24 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 19 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 05 $20 +$18 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 20 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Feb 18 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" this week? (December 1 - 7) Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 06 $20 +$31 +157%
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 05 $10 −$6 -65%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration this year? Dec 24 $10 −$9 -94%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $40 −$19 -48%
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup? Dec 10 $10 +$17 +174%
UFC 323: Blachowicz vs. Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competitio Dec 03 $15 +$74 +497%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 28 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Nov 28 $10 −$9 -88%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Nov 25 $10 −$5 -51%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 25 $10 −$2 -17%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 29 $10 −$6 -57%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $10 −$5 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 84% −$138
sports 6% +$7
other 4% +$99
politics 3% −$17
culture 1% −$7
tech 1% −$11
finance 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 70¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $18 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $16 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $50 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 50d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 50d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 52d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 53d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 53d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 53d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 53d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 53d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY No 97¢ $45 53d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 20¢ $23 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 21¢ $50 53d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 63¢ $50 54d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 54d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $90 54d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 54d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 54d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 55d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL No 24¢ $6 55d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL No 24¢ $3 55d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 26¢ $10 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -23.3% -30.6% 0% 0% -30.6%
≤30d 1 -23.3% -30.6% 0% 0% -30.6%
≤90d 26 -13.8% -22.0% 38% 12% -12.8%
all 50 -10.1% -18.7% 32% 18% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 18% -11.6%
10% -26.5% 18% -20.0%
15% -33.6% 16% -27.8%
20% -40.1% 12% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.49 · official $103.49 (match) · 149 history records