Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1296…902e politics 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,783 (-1%) realized −$1,783 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%38W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,039per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$19
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$74
other 37% +$165
sports 10% −$1,883
culture 3% −$5
world 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -3.1% -12.3% 15% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 79 -6.4% -15.3% 8% 1% -12.0%
all 149 -3.7% -12.9% 26% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 9% -10.6%
10% -21.2% 9% -19.1%
15% -28.8% 7% -26.9%
20% -35.8% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,498) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$33 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized−$1,783
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses38 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage152d
Avg bet$1,039
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $463 $462 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $333 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,201 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,301 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,262 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $393 +$2 +1%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,966 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,151 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $706 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,579 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,767 −$4 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $4,741 −$5 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $66 +$67 +101%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $137 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $892 +$2 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,337 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,785 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $216 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $362 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,886 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $4,267 −$5 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $356 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,867 −$3 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,382 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $276 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $287 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $224 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $356 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $294 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $463 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $510 18h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $511 20h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 20h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 22h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $537 23h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $537 25h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $545 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $546 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $332 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $333 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $762 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $764 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $911 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $918 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $919 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $849 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $805 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $806 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $841 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $842 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $921 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $923 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $393 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,072 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,073 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $706 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $707 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $462.43 · official $462.43 (match) · 490 history records