trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Dec 13 | $680 | −$212 | -31% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Dec 13 | $698 | +$707 | +101% |
| Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? | Nov 26 | $1,002 | +$410 | +41% |
| Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? | Sep 29 | $34,665 | −$7,858 | -23% |
| Rays vs. White Sox | Sep 29 | $3,149 | −$3,149 | -100% |
| Royals vs. Guardians | Sep 29 | $13,981 | −$13,981 | -100% |
| Commanders vs. Packers | Sep 29 | $15,200 | −$15,200 | -100% |
| OpenAI browser in 2025? | Sep 29 | $272 | −$110 | -40% |
| Will Eric Adams drop out? | Sep 29 | $8,735 | +$1,906 | +22% |
| San Jose State vs. Stanford | Sep 28 | $6,559 | +$4,660 | +71% |
| Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Sep 27 | $12,010 | +$7,749 | +64% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 11 | $1,568 | +$159 | +10% |
| Astros vs. Blue Jays | Sep 11 | $34,487 | +$1,234 | +4% |
| Pirates vs. Orioles | Sep 11 | $43,421 | +$10,618 | +24% |
| Astros vs. Rangers | Sep 11 | $931 | −$931 | -100% |
| Chiefs vs. Chargers | Sep 11 | $15,500 | −$15,500 | -100% |
| Liberty vs. Storm | Sep 11 | $10,347 | −$10,347 | -100% |
| Will Ethena win the USDH ticker? | Sep 10 | $3,733 | +$1,812 | +48% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 5PM ET | Sep 05 | $102 | −$102 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $118K August 4–10? | Sep 05 | $610 | −$610 | -100% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Sep 04 | $48,714 | +$21,574 | +44% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | Aug 29 | $97 | +$31 | +32% |
| Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? | Aug 24 | $68 | −$12 | -17% |
| Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday? | Aug 13 | $342 | +$75 | +22% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? | Aug 08 | $306 | +$113 | +37% |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Aug 04 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Blue Jays vs. Orioles | Aug 04 | $530 | −$530 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Aug 04 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Dodgers vs. Reds | Aug 04 | $376 | +$261 | +70% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 1? | Aug 04 | $586 | +$407 | +70% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 30 | -14.9% | -23.0% | 53% | 43% | -15.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -23.0% | 43% | -15.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -30.4% | 37% | -23.5% |
| 15% | -37.1% | 30% | -30.9% |
| 20% | -43.3% | 17% | -37.7% |