Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1293…bf3d other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 53L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% −$14
politics 23% −$15
other 9% +$7
sports 2% +$51
crypto 2% +$2
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 +5.0% -5.0% 18% 6% -8.1%
≤90d 57 +5.0% -5.0% 23% 18% -8.2%
all 70 +4.0% -5.9% 24% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 14% -9.4%
10% -14.9% 11% -18.1%
15% -23.1% 11% -26.0%
20% -30.6% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage630d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $10 +$8 +86%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $110 $0 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 18 $11 +$6 +60%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $124 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $112 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $124 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $123 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $117 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $124 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $122 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $120 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $127 −$2 -1%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $119 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 09 $8 +$8 +89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$11 +165%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $6 +$7 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 5h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 21h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $75 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $10 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $24 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $14 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.75 · official $74.75 (match) · 341 history records