Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1292…e678 sports 322 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,664 (+6%) realized +$5,335 · open +$329
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%158W / 155L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6,389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$709
14 days+$656
30 days+$852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$3,503
other 25% +$1,111
crypto 24% +$3,158
politics 13% −$2,028
world 4% −$90
tech 1% +$240
economics 1% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +9.9% -0.6% 71% 65% +29.8%
≤30d 28 +7.5% -2.7% 68% 61% +14.5%
≤90d 60 +22.4% +10.7% 52% 43% +6.9%
all 313 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 41% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 41% -4.1%
10% -20.0% 32% -13.3%
15% -27.7% 27% -21.7%
20% -34.8% 22% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$83 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$6,389
Realized+$5,335
Unrealized+$329
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses158 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions9
Markets (closed)313 / 322
History coverage604d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $4,503 $4,766 +$263 (+6%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 98¢ $355 $389 +$34 (+10%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 96¢ $344 $382 +$38 (+11%)
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 79¢ 79¢ $330 $328 −$2 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $204 $197 −$7 (-3%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $123 $148 +$25 (+20%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $94 $68 −$26 (-28%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $56 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $51 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $186 +$14 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$38 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 20 $150 −$10 -7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $196 +$34 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $366 +$633 +173%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $131 −$22 -16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $241 −$31 -13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $115 +$13 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $46 +$28 +61%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 04 $248 +$32 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 04 $165 +$19 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $35 +$24 +68%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $307 +$142 +46%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $357 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $12 −$1 -7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $136 −$61 -45%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $35 −$18 -52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $18 +$32 +178%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $20 −$2 -12%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $854 +$145 +17%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $20 +$40 +201%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 06 $250 +$8 +3%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $35 −$34 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $10 −$6 -55%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $120 +$114 +95%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $20 −$2 -8%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $31 +$66 +216%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $31 −$6 -19%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $97 +$2 +2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $206 −$204 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $9 +$51 +549%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $34 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,919 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $575 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $125 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,425 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 12h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $339 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 26h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 34h
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 49¢ $8 34h
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 49¢ $44 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $44 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $89 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 6d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $206 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,389.48 · official $6,389.48 (match) · 905 history records