Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1291…7419
crypto · 1648 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$267 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$266 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$14
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses772 / 871
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1643 / 1648
Avg bet$3
Trades / day129.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 1643 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$167
14 days−$234
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 50¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+83%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 53¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1418 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 48% -12.8%
≤30d 1643 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 47% -14.0%
≤90d 1643 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 47% -14.0%
all 1643 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 47% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover129.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 47% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 47% -22.2%
15% -29.3% 47% -29.7%
20% -36.2% 46% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.96 · official $13.99 (match) · 3500 history records