Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x128e…abfa crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,356 (-77%) realized −$1,336 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 66% −$1,050
crypto 26% −$269
world 8% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-69.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -66.6% -69.8% 18% 18% -84.1%
≤30d 11 -66.6% -69.8% 18% 18% -84.1%
≤90d 11 -66.6% -69.8% 18% 18% -84.1%
all 11 -66.6% -69.8% 18% 18% -84.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.8% 18% -84.1%
10% ← realistic here -72.7% 18% -85.6%
15% -75.3% 18% -87.0%
20% -77.8% 9% -88.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$159 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$1,336
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $90 $70 −$20 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $207 −$200 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $622 −$594 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $370 −$349 -94%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $112 −$47 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$102 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $53 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $68 +$27 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $39 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 1¢ $28 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 1¢ $7 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 1¢ $14 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $16 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $18 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 13¢ $28 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 15¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.00 · official $70.00 (match) · 151 history records