Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
12 0x128e…56f6 crypto 284 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$205 (-4%) realized −$240 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%169W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$12
14 days+$16
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$106
crypto 19% −$79
other 17% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.0% +4.1% 62% 62% -12.5%
≤30d 40 +18.8% +7.5% 65% 65% +0.6%
≤90d 283 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 44% -15.0%
all 283 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 44% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 44% -15.0%
10% -15.1% 35% -23.1%
15% -23.3% 28% -30.5%
20% -30.9% 21% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$240
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses169 / 114
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)283 / 284
History coverage52d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Maja Chwalinska 57¢ 86¢ $68 $103 +$35 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $69 +$42 +61%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $33 +$77 +236%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $68 −$68 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $34 +$17 +49%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $34 +$9 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $34 +$20 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $34 +$42 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $29 +$64 +221%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $31 +$34 +107%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $31 +$25 +81%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $20 +$12 +58%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $34 +$39 +114%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $34 +$25 +73%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $34 +$37 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $34 +$39 +114%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $34 −$34 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $34 −$34 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $34 −$34 -100%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $34 +$22 +65%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $34 +$22 +65%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? Jun 06 $34 +$17 +48%
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 05 $34 +$15 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $34 +$11 +32%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $34 +$15 +44%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $68 +$24 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $34 +$16 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $34 +$20 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $33 +$41 +126%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $34 +$18 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $34 −$34 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $32 −$16 -49%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $34 −$34 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $34 +$26 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 29 $47 −$2 -4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $68 +$19 +28%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 57¢ $34 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 57¢ $34 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 61¢ $34 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 61¢ $34 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 29¢ $33 27h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $3 39h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $34 39h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $34 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $34 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $34 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $34 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $34 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $34 13d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $34 14d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 10¢ $33 14d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $32 14d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 31¢ $80 15d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 15¢ $13 15d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ $29 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 24¢ $33 16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $0 16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $3 16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 32¢ $3 16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $4 16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $4 16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $4 16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 32¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.62 · official $103.81 · 1185 history records