Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x128b…7c4f other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,600 (-2%) realized −$1,676 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate91%100W / 10L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$807per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$8,410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$1,088
14 days−$935
30 days−$560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$2,629
economics 23% +$596
sports 16% +$528
politics 3% +$70
world 2% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.7% -30.9% 75% 0% -21.1%
≤30d 48 -4.9% -14.0% 88% 6% -10.5%
≤90d 108 -2.3% -11.6% 91% 6% -11.2%
all 110 -1.8% -11.1% 91% 8% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 8% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 5% -19.3%
15% -27.4% 2% -27.1%
20% -34.5% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,330) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$470 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$8,410
Realized−$1,676
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses100 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions15
Markets (closed)110 / 125
History coverage104d
Avg bet$807
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1,851 $1,900 +$49 (+3%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,167 $1,175 +$8 (+1%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,131 $1,138 +$7 (+1%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,001 $1,027 +$26 (+3%)
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $992 $995 +$4 (+0%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $690 $724 +$34 (+5%)
Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $600 $602 +$2 (+0%)
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 93¢ 88¢ $474 $445 −$29 (-6%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 98¢ 88¢ $303 $274 −$29 (-9%)
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+32%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $1,368 +$28 +2%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $561 +$8 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,967 +$43 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $883 +$22 +2%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $126 +$1 +1%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 16 $1,563 −$1,200 -77%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $1,041 +$18 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1,875 +$13 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $779 +$10 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $598 +$2 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? Jun 10 $144 +$1 +1%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $1,522 +$78 +5%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 10 $1,169 +$13 +1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? Jun 10 $482 +$8 +2%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $140 +$1 +1%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $3,481 +$41 +1%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $19 −$14 -76%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? Jun 05 $1,334 +$46 +3%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%? Jun 05 $819 +$8 +1%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 05 $375 +$25 +7%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.7M and 6.8M in April? Jun 02 $537 +$63 +12%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.8M and 6.9M in April? Jun 02 $409 +$91 +22%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.9M and 7.0M in April? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.2M in April? Jun 02 $645 +$55 +8%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 02 $19 +$1 +4%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $80 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $59 +$1 +2%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $273 −$10 -4%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $217 +$3 +2%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $1,097 −$88 -8%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 01 $1,740 +$10 +1%
US bank failure by May 31? Jun 01 $1,704 +$31 +2%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%? May 30 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 2.3% and 2.6%? May 30 $10 $0 +5%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be less than 0.7%? May 30 $175 +$5 +3%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.1% and 1.4%? May 30 $172 +$9 +5%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 28 $1,481 +$19 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $1,424 +$43 +3%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a May 27 $912 +$28 +3%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 25 $54 +$16 +30%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $14 +$1 +4%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $79 +$1 +1%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 25 $1,099 +$31 +3%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 23 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between -0.3% and -0.1%? May 19 $481 +$34 +7%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 19 $484 +$21 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 94¢ $56 45m
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 95¢ $19 46m
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 92¢ $37 47m
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 90¢ $36 47m
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 89¢ $18 48m
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 89¢ $36 48m
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? BUY No 99¢ $495 1h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? BUY No 99¢ $188 1h
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 95¢ $95 2h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 94¢ $28 2h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 94¢ $170 2h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $255 2h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 17h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 17h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 17h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 17h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 17h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 17h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $290 17h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? BUY No 97¢ $39 22h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? BUY No 97¢ $389 22h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? BUY No 99¢ $69 22h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? BUY No 96¢ $483 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,410.04 · official $8,410.04 (match) · 1184 history records