Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1287…deac politics 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,495 (+0%) realized +$1,495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%37W / 148L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,741per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$39
14 days+$33
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$193
other 32% +$194
sports 11% +$1,410
world 2% −$4
economics 2% −$2
culture 1% −$6
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 -1.7% -11.0% 11% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 110 -8.8% -17.5% 9% 5% -9.3%
all 185 +1.3% -8.3% 20% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 10% -9.1%
10% -17.1% 10% -17.8%
15% -25.1% 9% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,304) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$7 · ×9.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$758
Realized+$1,495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses37 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,741
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $759 $758 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $8,677 −$9 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $5,373 −$7 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $7,106 −$8 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,761 −$6 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $181 +$3 +2%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,646 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,244 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,415 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,978 −$3 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $78 +$34 +44%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $5,380 −$7 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $41 +$64 +158%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,053 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,469 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $5,997 −$6 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,693 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,191 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $84 +$54 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $455 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,647 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $528 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $437 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,396 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $3,469 −$6 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $84 +$39 +46%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $4,232 −$5 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,843 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $949 3h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $950 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $627 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $628 7h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,104 46h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,106 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $916 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $918 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,199 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,200 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,201 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,202 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,199 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,201 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,199 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $934 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $936 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,025 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,026 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $893 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $894 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,028 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,020 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,022 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,029 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $758.46 · official $758.46 (match) · 690 history records