Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1287…2b5e
other · 22 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$7 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)8 / 22
History coverage235d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit27%
Chart Positions 14 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 51¢ 81¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19? Mar 11 $11 −$11 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? Mar 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Mar 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Mar 10 $198 +$13 +6%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 39% +$13
other 34% +$6
world 19% +$3
finance 4% −$10
sports 2% +$6
politics 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 40h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 89d
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 89d
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? BUY No 86¢ $1 94d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19? BUY Up 57¢ $11 113d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? BUY Up 91¢ $10 120d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 186d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $106 186d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL No 0¢ $0 226d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $139 234d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $39 234d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $20 234d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 22¢ $10 234d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $100 234d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $100 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤30d 2 +29.9% +17.6% 100% 100% +25.8%
≤90d 2 +29.9% +17.6% 100% 100% +25.8%
all 8 -14.2% -22.3% 75% 25% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 25% -8.7%
10% -29.8% 12% -17.4%
15% -36.6% 12% -25.4%
20% -42.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.45 · official $81.45 (match) · 34 history records