Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x1286…0db0 crypto 1533 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%1014W / 516L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day58.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$23
14 days−$54
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$132
world 3% −$2
sports 1% −$2
other 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -6.0% -15.0% 60% 40% -15.6%
≤30d 1151 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 59% -12.1%
≤90d 1530 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 54% -11.6%
all 1530 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 54% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 54% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 22% -20.0%
15% -28.4% 9% -27.8%
20% -35.4% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1014 / 516
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1530 / 1533
History coverage54d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day58.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -84%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $4.99 (match) · 3500 history records