Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1286…da74 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$8 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$24
14 days−$7
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$66
other 41% +$12
crypto 17% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 33% -4.0%
≤30d 31 +2.7% -7.1% 39% 35% -10.5%
≤90d 31 +2.7% -7.1% 39% 35% -10.5%
all 31 +2.7% -7.1% 39% 35% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 35% -10.5%
10% -16.0% 35% -19.0%
15% -24.1% 35% -26.9%
20% -31.6% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage15d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $35 $50 +$15 (+43%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$10 +250%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $8 +$42 +510%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 +$31 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 08 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $51 53m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $46 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $81 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will J BUY 44¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 34¢ $24 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 9¢ $11 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will B BUY 64¢ $106 30h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 14¢ $8 34h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 34h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 34h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 34h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 35h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 14¢ $51 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.91 · official $220.91 · 64 history records