Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1284…7474
world · 65 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$140 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$140
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)51 / 65
History coverage109d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 9 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$112
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 40¢ 39¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -68%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Jun 11 $64 −$56 -88%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -55%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $61 −$19 -31%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 May 09 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 25 $102 +$17 +17%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $81 −$18 -22%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 10 $10 −$2 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $38 −$13 -35%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 07 $175 −$10 -6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 05 $42 −$25 -58%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 02 $53 −$6 -11%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $4 $0 -5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $122 +$27 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Mad" this week? (April 5) Mar 31 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? (April 5) Mar 31 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? (April 5) Mar 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" this week? (April 5) Mar 29 $10 −$6 -60%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 29 $77 +$22 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 23 $2 $0 -24%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 20 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 19 $53 +$3 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Mar 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 16 $8 −$5 -57%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Mar 16 $39 −$2 -5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 15 $13 +$7 +56%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Mar 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 12 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 12 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $26 −$8 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 08 $5 $0 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 08 $2 $0 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? Mar 08 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 07 $20 +$4 +19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Mar 06 $5 $0 -6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Mar 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 01 $18 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $3 −$1 -29%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 01 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31? Feb 28 $3 $0 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $10 −$9 -89%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $14 +$9 +68%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? Feb 27 $3 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 56% −$64
world 33% −$63
other 6% $0
finance 4% −$6
crypto 1% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 31m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 40m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 47m
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 40¢ $2 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $39 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 100¢ $1 11h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 54¢ $3 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 13¢ $1 23h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 24h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 24h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 22¢ $5 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $4 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY $1 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $145 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $13 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -54.1% -58.5% 12% 12% -68.2%
≤30d 8 -54.1% -58.5% 12% 12% -68.2%
≤90d 31 -25.8% -32.9% 23% 16% -21.7%
all 51 -15.8% -23.8% 25% 20% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 20% -19.5%
10% -31.1% 12% -27.2%
15% -37.8% 8% -34.2%
20% -43.9% 6% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.49 · official $146.49 · 285 history records