Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x1283…ddf0 crypto 825 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,899 (+25%) realized +$3,900 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%443W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day92.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$370
other 4% +$114
weather 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +0.7% -8.9% 61% 51% -9.8%
≤30d 824 -4.7% -13.7% 54% 48% -11.1%
≤90d 824 -4.7% -13.7% 54% 48% -11.1%
all 824 -4.7% -13.7% 54% 48% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 48% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 39% -19.6%
15% -29.5% 32% -27.4%
20% -36.4% 22% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$3,900
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses443 / 381
Open positions1
Markets (closed)824 / 825
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day92.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 824 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 74¢ 68¢ $36 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 38¢ 32¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$21 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $98 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $71 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.67 · official $34.93 (match) · 3500 history records