Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1283…b348 weather 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$196 (+9%) realized +$247 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$733
crypto 11% +$249
weather 9% −$64
world 3% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 53% -30.2%
≤30d 19 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 53% -30.2%
≤90d 19 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 53% -30.2%
all 19 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 53% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 53% -30.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 53% -36.9%
15% -24.4% 42% -43.0%
20% -31.8% 32% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$91 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$247
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Yes 39¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Yes 25¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? No 78¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? No 74¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,571 −$662 -42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 +$6 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $9 +$7 +74%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $89 −$71 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $14 +$15 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $14 +$15 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$168 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $80 +$43 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$65 +126%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $60 +$23 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $871 54m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $79 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $99 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $99 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $98 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $132 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $76 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $38 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $36 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 61¢ $38 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $158 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $51 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $7 36h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 76¢ $7 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 79¢ $8 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $8 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 64¢ $8 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $9 38h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 56¢ $9 38h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 49¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 70 history records