Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1282…6483 other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$13
other 29% −$14
politics 10% +$11
culture 6% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -3.8% -12.9% 12% 6% -11.5%
≤90d 18 +9.7% -0.8% 17% 11% -9.9%
all 56 +3.3% -6.5% 20% 5% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 5% -10.7%
10% -15.5% 4% -19.2%
15% -23.6% 2% -27.0%
20% -31.1% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage265d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $91 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $16 −$2 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $46 −$7 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $3 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $55 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 −$1 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $62 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $56 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $4 +$10 +238%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Jan 31 $12 $0 -2%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $49 −$14 -28%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 04 $19 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 08 $8 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $8 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $49 9m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $19 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $19 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $12 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $33 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $44 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $46 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $42 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $42 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $54 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records